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For these reasons, we referred to them as "battlegrounds." The reason these states and two districts had so much sway in the 2016 presidential election was largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast, but the battleground states were still up for grabs.
Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D. That's 74 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
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Note: Trump and Clinton were projected to receive 306 and 232 electoral votes, respectively.
Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states.
Evolving Strategies and Ballotpedia surveyed 4,242 registered voters, with a margin of error of /-4.0%.
Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preferences. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R).
In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former governor Gary Johnson.
In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump.
Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes—66 percent of 270—from 22 states.
We knew this because of these states' past election results, demographic trends, and polling data.